Helfen statt Blockieren
DEENES
Menu

Articles

Tariffs 2025 to 2026: what reaches the trader

· Helfen statt Blockieren editorial team

Since summer 2025 the United States has reorganised its tariffs on goods from the EU several times: by agreement, after a court ruling and on a new legal basis. For a company that ships goods this mainly means recalculating, redeclaring and replanning. An overview with sources.

Six dates worth knowing

Anyone shipping to the US dealt with six different regimes in little more than a year. The timeline lists only what matters directly to traders and small and medium-sized firms.

  1. Joint statement of the EU and the USFor most goods from the EU, the US applies a ceiling of 15 percent, including the existing duty. On steel and aluminium derivatives the US still charges up to 50 percent; these are to be aligned with the ceiling by the end of 2026, or the EU may suspend its concessions.
  2. End of the US exemption for small shipmentsThe US suspends the duty-free limit of 800 US dollars for shipments from all countries. Deutsche Post and DHL Paket stop accepting business customers’ parcels to the US after 22 August and resume on 25 September 2025, now with duty-paid delivery and complete customs data. Private gifts up to 100 US dollars remain exempt. Since 24 June 2026 the exemption has been suspended indefinitely for all routes except the postal network; by statute it ends on 1 July 2027.
  3. Supreme Court rulingThe Supreme Court rules that the emergency law IEEPA does not authorise the President to impose tariffs. The tariffs based on it end. Tariffs under Section 232, for example on steel, aluminium, copper, lumber and vehicles, remain.
  4. A 10 percent surcharge for 150 daysA surcharge under Section 122 applies instead. Exempt are, among others, pharmaceuticals, passenger cars and goods already subject to Section 232 tariffs.
  5. Agreement in force, new EU rule for parcelsThe EU and US agreement enters into force. On the same day the EU starts a flat duty of 3 euros per item for consignments under 150 euros where the seller uses the Import One-Stop Shop.
  6. New tariffs under Section 301For goods from the EU, the surcharge generally tops up the regular duty to a combined 10 percent; if the regular duty is already higher, nothing is added. Pharmaceuticals and goods subject to Section 232 tariffs are largely exempt.

What the statistics show

In 2025 German companies shipped goods worth 146.2 billion euros to the US, 9.4 percent less than in 2024. Even so, the US remained the most important destination of German exports. From January to November 2025 exports of motor vehicles and parts fell by 17.5 percent and machinery by 9.0 percent; pharmaceuticals rose by 0.7 percent.

In the first half of 2026 exports to the US fell by 6.1 percent to 73.1 billion euros, while total German exports rose by 3.9 percent. In August 2026, at 13.5 billion euros, they were 22.6 percent above the weak August of 2025 (calendar and seasonally adjusted). Whether this is a turning point cannot be read from a single month.

German exports to the US, by month

Billion euros, not seasonally adjusted. One line per year; 2026 up to August.

Month202420252026
January11.911.911.3
February13.813.911.9
March14.415.213.1
April14.413.111.4
May13.311.712.5
June13.011.812.7
July14.212.215.5
August12.69.812.1
September14.613.3not yet
October13.312.2not yet
November14.311.3not yet
December11.510.4not yet

Analysis: Helfen statt Blockieren. Data: Eurostat Comext, DS-045409, as of 16 Oct 2026, accessed 3 Nov 2026.

Which product groups lost and which gained is shown in our short study based on Eurostat data.

What companies say

In the “Going International 2026” survey of the Association of German Chambers of Commerce and Industry (DIHK), 69 percent of 2,400 internationally active companies reported more trade barriers, up from 58 percent the year before. That is the highest value in the series. Of those affected, 66 percent named higher tariffs, 51 percent local certification rules, 35 percent export controls and 30 percent sanctions.

More trade barriers abroad

Share of surveyed companies that noticed an increase in trade barriers, percent.

YearShare
201334%
201436%
2015no value in source
201635%
201732%
201840%
201947%
202050%
202147%
202254%
202356%
202461%
202558%
202669%

Source: DIHK, “Going International 2026”, survey of 2,400 internationally active companies, 2 to 13 February 2026. Values read column by column from the source chart; it shows no value for 2015.

Not everything comes from abroad: 83 percent also see home-made hurdles in Germany and the EU. 42 percent of them name processing problems, such as long approval times at the Federal Office for Economic Affairs and Export Control or complex customs procedures. Large companies notice more barriers more often (84 percent) than small and medium-sized ones (65 percent), because they operate in more markets. Of the respondents, 16 percent are in trade and 77 percent have up to 249 employees.

Small parcels, big effort

For traders who send individual parcels, the end of the US exemption was a break: every shipment now needs customs data, and someone has to pay the duty before the goods arrive. In the other direction, the EU has applied the flat duty of 3 euros per item since 1 July 2026. It is temporary, until the 150 euro threshold disappears entirely in 2028.

The German Retail Federation HDE expects little from it. Its chief executive Stefan Genth said in September 2026 that Temu, Shein and others would adapt and carry on. The federation calls for a central market supervisor for providers from third countries.

What traders can check now

  • Tariff code and origin of each product: they decide whether the rule for EU goods or a Section 232 tariff applies.
  • Steel and aluminium content: derivatives are subject to separate, higher rates.
  • Delivery terms: who clears customs and who pays depends on the agreed Incoterms. Clauses for tariff changes avoid later disputes.
  • Parcels: a carrier with duty-paid delivery and complete customs data for each shipment.
  • Advice: the local chamber of commerce and the German chamber abroad; for questions on EU sanctions, the European Commission’s free EU Sanctions Helpdesk.

Assessment

Whether tariffs are a good policy tool is not answered here. The piece shows something smaller: every change of the rules costs companies time for calculation, declaration and contracts, even when the rate falls in the end. Predictability is itself a tradable good. How traders can secure permitted trade despite changing rules is described in the proposal “The trade file”.

This piece is information, not legal advice. It reflects the author’s view. “Helfen statt Blockieren” is non-partisan.

Sources

All online sources accessed on 3 November 2026.

All articles